The Longtail: reports of its demise are greatly exagerated - a clarification

As an update to my excitable post below announcing the demise of the Longtail, it's worth directing people to Chris Anderson's post which responds robustly to MCPR-PRS's claims.

Rather than being "thoroughly debunked" it seems that a real interpretation of the The Longtail's validity depends on the type and scope of data used, and presumably the methodological approach taken by the researchers.

Now I should have checked my enthusiasm at debunking, especially as I am only too aware of the different results thrown up by different approaches to research. In fact I suggested as much in response to Jed Hallam's comment below!

Sorry to Chris Anderson for being to hasty to snack on an internet scandal :)

Technorati tags: Longtail, Research, debunking

The Longtail is thoroughly debunked by empirical research

I posted back in July reminding those of us who take current Internet theories such as The Wisdom of Crowds at face value that many of these ideas are primarily marketing tools, rather than tested, research-based approaches.

As a fascinating follow-up to this, Alan Patrick from Broadsight has posted a fascinating analysis of Internet uber-theory, The Longtail, titled: 'The end of The Longtail?'

Alan posts about a recent presentation given by an MCPS-PRS Alliance economist, Will Page, which argued that The Longtail is "fairly completely incorrect".

Page apparently helped Chris Anderson write The Longtail thesis, but has since carried out empirical research on a huge volume of global online music sales. The research found:

"while there was a long tail, it was extremely poverty stricken and much of it is moribund [...] even Free doesn’t work - when Radiohead gave away their music for free, there were still 400,000 illegal downloads in the UK. Not only that, they have found that illegal services focus on the “hit head” even more than the average."

Hypothesising further, Alan reckons that most demand curves are Log Normal rather than Pareto Power Law Curves, an opinion strongly supported by one of the researchers.

A full and thorough debunking of The Longtail based on the research can also be found by Andrew Orlowski over at The Register.

As a footnote to this, it is maybe worth adding that the researchers work for an organization that enforces commercial copyright on behalf of composers, songwriters and music publishers.

Technorati tags: The Longtail, Internet Theories, Power Law, Log Normal

CIPR Social Media Guidelines: an open response

The UK's PR industry professional body, the Chartered Institute of Public Relations (CIPR) recently opened up its Social Media Guidelines for consultation. It does this once a year and this year only two bloggers I know posted about it.

I received a very polite reminder from the CIPR today asking me if I wanted to contribute. I hesitated submitting my views this time around after my previous experience left me with a distinct "we're listening but not hearing" feeling from senior CIPR protagonists.

But after re-reading the amended guidelines I decided to submit a response. What follows is a version of my submission. I must stress that this submission represents my personal rather than professional views and I am a fully-paid up member of the CIPR.

The consultation asks two specific questions:

  • Do you believe this document covers the issues highlighted in sufficient depth?
  • Do you believe there are other important issues which should be addressed (and if so, what are they)?

But it also welcomes "general views"

To my mind the guidelines document does cover the issues highlighted in sufficient depth and also covers off all of the major online issues.

However, whether the issues are the right issues and whether all other issues included, e.g. online advertising and SEO, are directly relevant to PROs remains to be seen.

In short my more general contribution is this: Firstly, I am not entirely clear why the CIPR social media guidelines are required seeing as so much of the core social media behaviour PROs need to adhere to is subsumed within the CIPR's Code of Conduct: integrity, competence and confidentiality.

This is especially highlighted when there appears to inherent contradictions in the guidelines. For example, the Guidelines state:

"particular care should be taken when ‘ghosting’ a blog"

as this behaviour may break the CoC if the ghost-blogger isn't transparent about their motivations/intentions. I went further and suggested that ghosting is pretty much condemned and denounced by all bloggers so in my opinion the CIPR should make a blanket recommendation to its members to avoid the practice.

However, further into the Guidelines ghost-blogging is flagged as likely to be illegal anyway in light of the recent OFT's 'Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regulations 2008'. Here the CIPR goes as far as to state that  "[e]xamples of social media activities outlawed under the Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regulations" include "Creating Fake blogs (‘ghosting’)". This to me is confusing and risks sending mixed messages.


Secondly. the CIPR seems to have maintained its position whereby social media is an additional 'channel' to traditional PR rather than addressing the fundamental shifts in media (and thus PR) that the Internet is bringing about.

As an example, the guidelines specifically recommend:

  • flagging up your professional role every time you leave a comment on a blogs
  • no deep linking
  • using copyrighted material
  • employers curtailing - through policy - personal use of social media during working hours

I suggested that none of these practices are realistic. No deep links? WTF?

In light of the way the social web functions PR professionals who really want to succeed in 'social media' must immerse themselves and learn how the online space operates in such a radically different way to traditional media.

The idea of following top-down stipulations that fundamentally contradict the environment in which they're designed to apply seems counter-productive.

While I totally understand that the CIPR needs to appear as if it is dealing with the issue at hand, I still stand by what I said in my letter to PR Week in January 2008. It was this: that the PR industry (in the UK at least) is losing (has lost?) out in terms of industry leadership to other industries that are investing greater effort to understand social/digital media (indeed it's perhaps no surprise to find the CIPR directing it's members to the ASA's guidance on social media!).

I suspect I am being too critical or at least taking the guidelines apart in an overly forensic way. If I am being constructively critical then I get the feeling that the Guidelines are too equivocal. I've already highlighted the discrepancy when it comes to ghost blogging. There's a similar tension that runs throughout the Guidelines. They suggest PR professionals should "err on the side of disclosure" but then draw attention to legal requirements.

This - to me, at least - is a tension between following the existing rules and listening the emerging best practice of online communities. Rigid, trenchant laws fail to take into account the messiness (to paraphrase Weinberger and Shirky) of media/PR on the Internet. But they are the domain of the traditional organisation to which it can fall back on.

The challenge here is for the CIPR to get 'social and abandon formalised consultations to learn real-life lessons form those immersed or involved in social media. Only then will it start to get a 'feel' for the way its Guidelines should be developed and take a real and significant step towards leading the PR industry (and related industries) into a digital future.

Technorati tags: Chartered institute of Public Relations, CIPR, Social Media, Guidelines

Bit of a refresh around these parts

So after thinking about it for a while I decided to stay up late at the weekend and give my blog a new lick of paint and layout.

I had a few instant comments via Twitter saying the new layout is cleaner and makes the blog easier to read - which is good as that's what I had in mind.

I also took the opportunity to update my Essential Reading aka blogroll.

I'd love to get any thoughts or feedback etc on the new design (actually I like to think of it as an 'undesign') and if you;re not on my blogroll but think you ought to be then let me know.

Am I the only person not to finish Here Comes Everybody?

This may be somewhat controversial, but I can't bring myself to finish Clay Shirky's Here Comes Everybody.

It may be this year's bestseller, but I am struggling to find anything new or ground-breaking between the covers. Admittedly, there are a couple of anecdotes or examples I find interesting enough to dog-ear the page, but the number of dog-eared pages is low.

As I've read the book some ideas I can't help but feel I've read before. The chapter 'Sharing Anchors Community' has some dog-earring but both David Weinberger and Yochai Benkler have covered off the Internet's challenges to institutional ecology from a more social and economic perspective.

Likewise, in the chapter Publish, then Filter, Shirky explores the idea that with massively decreased production and storage costs (specifically, the cost of publishing content via blogs) the Internet changes the media model whereby barriers to creating content disappear giving everybody (from the book's title?) a chance to compete with hitherto professional creators/publishers etc.

I admit I'm simplifying here, but the idea the Internet is re-shaping human knowledge and the ways in which we interpret the world around us based on the growing digital (dis)order is explored in much more depth in Weinberger's Everything is Miscellaneous. See my review for a bit more about this.

Writing about the book in response to Felix Stalder's review in Mute magazine, I suggested that HCE is a business book, rather than a study in digital sociology or emerging digital economics.

A colleague suggested that idea to me independently when he remarked that "like all business books, it could have pruned to about five pages."

I have to agree. There's a lot of homely anecdotes which frankly I just find are filler. And that's why I've given up two-thirds of the way through.

 What do others think? Am I being too unforgiving?

Technorati tags: Clay Shirky, Here Comes Everybody, business books

Dear Lord Carter, please read this blog post - Why The Government's Digital Britain Report Worries Me

The UK Government made a significant announcement last week as it unveiled plans to seriously review and examine everything digital and its relation to business and culture.

As far as I'm concerned, the announcement, by Lord Carter, Minister for Communications, Technology and Broadcasting, is is a vitally important topic and while it gained some coverage in the UK blogosphere (notably posts by Wadds, Stephen Davies and Dominic Campbell), I think it deserves a lot more debate.

The reason it deserves more debate is that while the Government is appearing to take seriously the opportunities - economic and cultural - offered by digital convergence the language it is using to drive forward a review of these opportunities is worrying.

One phrase in particular I find intriguing:

"We [the Government] will seek to bring forward a unified framework to help maximize the UK’s competitive advantage and the benefits to society."

Now, while no one will argue that maximizing the benefits the Internet brings to UK society is not desirable, and while some would argue that maximizing the UK’s competitive advantage is not a necessary priority it cannot be denied that the Internet is throwing up enormous economic benefits.

But what concern me here is the term "unified framework". This brings to mind the idea of an extremely top-down, bureaucratic regime of Internet governance for certain industries or social/cultural groups that the Government decides is a priority or that would benefit specifically from support.

Of course, I'm prejudging what the government has in mind. However, I am prejudging to illustrate a point. namely, that as any fule kno - the beauty and power of the Internet is that it is a decentralised network where the power of creativity or production is in the hands of the individual user.

As a result, production and methods of production are as unique and *non-unified* as there are individuals involved.

It is perhaps worrying that the Government's announcement seems to indicate a failure to grasp this idea.

Related to this point of decentralised production by end-users is the notion of what actually gets created (and "digital content development" is one of the key Government areas for review).

The announcement observes that digital convergence is "critical to every business in our economy, acting both as a catalyst for creativity and allowing efficiency gains."

But if we look specifically at 'social or peer production' - the user-generated content I suspect the Government is alluding to (especially with reference to "efficiency gains" - then again it is acutely important that the *user-generated* element of this creative content and production is just that: created by the user.

This is significant because it means the Government can't just pick a key industry and say "Right. This is the sector in which we need efficiency gains and more creative content." This, of course, is for the individual with a PC in their study or bedroom to decide.

But don't get me wrong, we are experiencing a major transition in the way economic models, businesses, creativity and social relations behave. And the Internet is at the heart of this transition - both driving it and being driven. The fact that the UK government has woken up to it is extremely heartening. key issues are under review, such as:

  • "Broadband Development - examining options for maximizing participation and levels of service across the UK 
  • Spectrum: identifying the barriers to the release of spectrum and a fully functioning market in the trading and use of spectrum
  • Universal access to high quality, public service content through appropriate mechanisms for a converged digital age
  • Intellectual property: the UK Intellectual Property Office will take forward work to deliver a digital copyright framework which supports creativity, investment and job creation in these important sectors"

My concern comes from experience of the way government and organisations function which is usually highly top-down and hierarchical. Culture Secretary, Andy Burnham, who is sharing ministerial responsibility for the Carter Review, says as much in the press release:

"Over the last year we’ve worked with experts to get a clear understanding of the issues to address and obstacles to overcome if our businesses and citizens are to take full advantage of technology." [My emphasis]

IMHO speaking to self-appointed 'experts' about how other people ("citizens") should make use of technology is the old way of doing things. And in my view approaching the opportunities of the Internet in this way will achieve the exact opposite of what the Government intends to achieve.

Former Yale academic, recently appointed Professor of Entrepreneurial Law at Harvard UniversityYochai Benkler, has written extensively about emergent economic models in a digital age.

As suggested above these models rely on social and/or non-market forces to achieve the "efficiency gains" flagged by the UK government. In his Wealth of Networks, Benkler observes that in this emerging economic and institutional ecology:

"the State plays no role or is perceived as playing a primarily negative role ... Just like the market, the state will have to adjust to this new emerging modality of human action."

Benkler suggests we are on the cusp of a new era for economics and creative opportunity as the UK government seems to acknowledge in its planned Digital Britain Report. However, Benkler is explicit that these new opportunities for the economy as well as democracy and human freedom are contingent on the key players (governments; regulators; gate-keeping corporations etc) getting it right from the outset.

The UK Government's announcement doesn't fill me with optimism that this is likely to happen.

Technorati tags: UK Government, DCMS, BERR, Carter Review, Digital Economy

For clarity's sake:blogging IS NOT dead

Despite the media hoo-har blogging is not dead. Just wanted to be clear on that.

Technorati tags: Blogging is not dead

Friday Fun - New Video from The Research

So it's Friday everybody and this week saw the first release of new material from Wakefield's finest trio (and friends), The Research.

The single, I Think She's The One I Love is an absolute gem of a track. Full of sacharine misanthropy (although that doesn't do it justice), a catcy melody and all of it backed up with classy arrangements and fabulous harmonies.

But don't just take my word for it....

 


The Research - I Think She's The One I Love from This Is Fake DIY Records on Vimeo.

The 'Search had one of the most critically acclaimed albus of 2006 (4/5, Mojo; Album of the Week, Sunday Times) but owing to record label hiatus it's taken this long and a complete re-record of the second album to get here.

You can listen to more tunes on The Research's MySpace page and buy the current single and album from Fake DIY.

Technorati tags: The Research, music, I Think She's The One I Love, Fake DIY

Thoughts on the Internet as a 'game changer' for PR and communications consultancy

Doc has a post about Internet regulation in Canada where after nearly 10 years of regulation free Internet, the Canadian Radio and Television Commission has just announced that it is to look again at 'broadcasting using the Internet'.

The issue of Internet regulation is a major one and not for this post - although it is edfinitely something I want to follow up in the UK.

Instead. what I wanted to share was Doc's neat summary of why the Internet is important to everyone and everything.

Doc asserts that: 

"the Net isn’t just a game-changer for everything it touches, but a subject of transcendent importance, so unique, so unlike anything that preceded it, that it wasn’t like anything."

And this is precisely the problem. All too often (and more like all of the time) people want to know how they use the Internet to improve what they already do, or want to know what impact the Internet will have on their organisation.

But how do you give these people an answer when they are asking the wrong question?

Of course, it is the PR consultant's job to tell the client the right question to ask and then answer it. But it is often difficult to get beyond traditional expectations.

Take this as an example: a client may call on their PR consultant to tell them how to communicate better using the Internet. However, the right answer might in fact be that before the client can change its communications, the way the company operates must be transformed to bring it in line with the expectations, identities, social norms etc of a digitally networked society. Now this is traditionally seen as management consultancy and *not* what the PR agency is paid for.

This position - of course - supports what Grunig has said about PR all along. Unfortunately, it has been an uphill struggle to sell Grunig's ideas first time aprund, let alone when we are working in a digitally networked world which operates as an entirely different paradigm.

Technorati tags: Net Neutrality, regulation, Doc Searls, consultancy, management, paradigm shifts

Two-way communications as strategic management - the past and future of PR?

I mentioned systems-based communications theory and its forefather, James Grunig, in a post last week.

As fortune would have it, Grunig took part in an open discussion with the PR Conversations blog.

It may be 'classic' PR theory but it is definitely worth checking out. As Richard Bailey writes about Grunig's views:

"The strategic management paradigm emphasizes two-way communication of many kinds to provide publics [with?] a voice in management decisions and to facilitate dialogue between management and publics." [my emphasis]

I am very much convinced that as the Internet disintermediates the mass media and thus breaks down PRO's (over-?)reliance on specific channels and mediums the need for practitioners to act as strategic communications consultants will be vital to the future of the industry. Needless to say, the indistry itself will look very different by then too.

Via Richard Bailey PR Studies blog.

Technorti tags: Two-way communications, James Grunig, PR theory, Richard Bailey

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